原文位置:http://ustock.com.tw/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=89348&extra=page%3D1
穆迪最新違約率報告
美國高收益債違約率溫和上揚至2.7%、歐洲則持平於1.8%
Moody’s 最新違約率報告(2011/6/7)
穆迪公布最新違約率報告顯示，全球高收益債市5月份違約率為2.4%，美國高收益債市違約率溫和上揚至2.7%，歐洲高收益債市則維持1.8%。穆迪並指出，儘管利差微幅擴張、經濟基本面溫吞，但多數企業基本面仍屬穩健，加上目前市場並無流動性凍結問題，預料美歐企業違約機率仍低，預估今年年底，全球高收益債違約率可望收斂至1.5%，明年五月底微幅揚升降至1.7%。
5月份，全球高收益債違約率自前月的2.3%溫和上揚至2.4%，與去年同期預估值1.9%相近，2010年5月全球高收益債市違約率為7.6%。
美國高收益債5月違約率自4月的2.6%微幅上升至2.7%。
歐洲高收益債5月違約率持平於1.8%，去年同期預估值為1.7%。
【市場展望】
◎受惠企業債信持續改善，高收益公司債利差還有再往下空間
美銀美林證券(5/13)重申：充沛流動性與低利環境不僅使企業債信明顯改善，也延續投資人對於高收益債的投資需求，預期今年底利差可望降至360個基本點，全年報酬率預估10%水準。
利差(基本點) 上一波債信多頭循環 2011年*
2003年 2004年 2005年 2006年 2007年
年度平均 626 391 354 325 361 484
最低點 416 296 271 282 241 452
資料來源：彭博資訊，美林高收益債指數，*統計至2011/5/19。
◎能源公司債：擁有殖利率相對優勢與補漲題材
報酬率% 殖利率% 2008年 2009年 2010年 2011年*
能源產業 6.86% -24.71% 51.14% 12.95% 6.61%
大盤指數 6.68% -26.39% 57.51% 15.19% 6.05%
資料來源：彭博資訊，原幣計價。美林高收益債券指數，*2011年統計至5/19。
◎經理人評論
坦伯頓公司債基金(本基金主要係投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)經理人評論(5/9)：
2011年公司債延續2009年中以來強勁揚升行情，企業盈餘回升與債信基本面改善是重要關鍵，美國企業盈餘回升速度比預期來得快，現金部位累積更攀至歷史高點，顯示出強勁自由現金流量及先前去槓桿化舉措已有成效；預期企業將持續受益於營運槓桿增進、成本控制、全球化與生產力的提升。
我們仍樂觀看待高收益債投資前景，因為美國經濟仍處溫和復甦態勢，短期內聯準會不急於升息，加上穩健供需狀況將支撐公司債市表現，產業當中，特別看好能源公司債，因其受惠於全球強勁需求成長與併購題材。
坦伯頓穩定月收益基金(本基金主要係投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)經理人愛德華．波克認為，長期利率走升環境，不利於美國公債中長期表現；由於企業獲利好轉以及債信品質改善，高收益債市仍存在投資機會，但慎選具有投資價值的投資標的將更加重要，此外，目前美國大型企業現金充沛，併購活動逐漸增溫，將有利高收益公司債的表現。
◎坦伯頓公司債基金(本基金主要係投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)-聚焦循環性產業，分享盈餘成長、債信改善、與資金動能題材
主要產業投資比例(%)
1.bmp
資料來源：富蘭克林坦伯頓基金集團。分別統計富蘭克林坦伯頓公司債基金A股（本基金主要係投資於非投資等級之高風險債券）之2008年、2009年，2010年之年底與2011年4月底主要產業別投資比重，不計現金比重。
【投資建議】
短期間受到多項變數籠罩、市場氣氛渾沌不明之際，建議透過股債均衡配置策略，收斂股市震盪風險。基於貨幣政策寬鬆，經濟復甦逐漸朝向需求帶動實質成長，2011年底歐美高收益債違約率將維持下探走勢，支撐投資人對高收益債的投資信心，聯準會將於六月底如期結束二次量化寬鬆，但短期內不至於採取升息舉措，預期今年高收益公司債需求仍舊強勁，建議以平衡佈局美股、高收益債市的FT穩定月收益基金(本基金主要係投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)為核心，分批加碼FT公司債基金(本基金主要係投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)，掌握債信面、資金面、獲利面加持下，高收益債市續揚行情。
*************************************************************************************************************************
Moody\'s: Spec-Grade Default Rate in Line With Forecasts
Global Credit Research - 07 Jun 2011
New York, June 07, 2011 -- The global speculative-grade default rate finished at 2.4 % in May, according to Moody\'s Investors Service in its monthly default report. This is consistent with Moody\'s forecast of 1.9% made a year ago. Last month, the rate was 2.3% and a year ago it stood significantly higher at 7.6%.
Moody\'s forecasting model predicts that the global speculative-grade default rate will decline to 1.5 by the end of 2011 and finish at 1.7% by May 2012.
There were two debt defaults in May; bringing the year-to-date default count to 10. By comparison, 23 companies defaulted in 2010.
\"Spreads have widened slightly and the fundamental economic news is weakening. But many corporate fundamentals remain good. Absent a liquidity freeze, we continue to expect few defaults among corporate in the US and Europe,\" said Albert Metz, Moody\'s Director of Credit Policy Research.
Moody\'s expects default rates to be highest in the Wholesale sector in the U.S. and the Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing sector in Europe.
In the U.S., the speculative-grade default rate rose modestly to 2.7% in May, from 2.6% in previous month but in line with Moody\'s year-ago forecast of 2.1%.
In Europe, the default rate among speculative-grade remained unchanged at 1.8% from April to May. Moody\'s forecast the rate at 1.7% a year ago.
When measured on a dollar volume basis, the global speculative-grade bond default rate closed at 1.5% unchanged from April. A year ago, the global dollar-weighted default rate was significantly higher at 6.9%.
In the U.S., the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond default rate was also unchanged at 1.4%, also unchanged from the previous month. The comparable rate was 7.8% in May 2010.
In Europe, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond default rate edged up to 2.0% in May from 1.9% in April. Last year, the European speculative-grade bond default rate was 3.4%.
Moody\'s speculative-grade corporate distress index—a measure of the percentage of high-yield issuers that have debt trading at distressed levels—rose to 6.6% in May from April\'s 6.0% level. A year ago, the index was markedly higher at 14.9%.
Among U.S. leveraged loan issuers, the trailing 12-month default rate was unchanged at 2.2% in May from its April level. A year ago, the loan default rate was 7.2%. Caribe Media Inc was the only Moody\'s-rated loan issuer to default this month.
Moody\'s \"May Default Report\" is now available, as are Moody\'s other default research reports, in the Rating Analytics section of Moodys.com.
***
NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.
New York
Sharon Ou
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Credit Policy Research
Moody\'s Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
New York
Albert Metz
MD - Credit Policy Research
Credit Policy Research
Moody\'s Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody\'s Investors Service
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
